Before that, we go all the way back to 1964 for us and 1972 for them. By State [ change | change source] Two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely nonpartisan. University of Wisconsin Law SchoolView posts , Vice Dean for Faculty The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a ", 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, The Republican Electoral College Advantage, Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI). The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[4]. Tabatha Abu El-Haj, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. The boldface sentences confirm my understanding of how PVI works. downballot, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems. Include the PVI in brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make more sense. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. This page was last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22. According to Cook, the PVI "is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years. Is the 118th Congress Headed for a Wreck? I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. More than two-thirds of Californias 53 congressional districts lean Democratic, as do those in the southern half of Texas and the eastern coasts of Oregon and Washington. For instance, Im sure we can think of other districts that fit easily into each of the six categories I have above. There are actually two PVI's calculated: one for each state, and a separate for each Congressional district. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. Hardly a day hardly a post goes by here at the Swing State Project without a reference to the Cook Political Reports Partisan Vote Index, or PVI for short. Wyoming is rated R+25, with nearly 70 percent of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012. The data is useful but kind of screwy. Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. Segregation in the US and the dissimilarity index. SVI would also be a good microtargeting tool, but something tells me that it would just be an under/overperformance scale and wouldnt be as cross-comparable. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. 1 COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX. i read recently that if the electorate was the same as it was in 1992, McCain would have won easily, but because of larger numbers of young people and people of color it was a whole different story. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State | Technology Trends Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State By State The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Beginning with this decade, we're making a slight formula change to how we calculate PVI scores: instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. To ensure consistency, all 2021 (pre-redistricting) and 2022 (post-redistricting) PVI scores cited in this report reflect the new formula. KS-Sen: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, The Swing State Project Is Now Daily Kos Elections. The result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. But at the Presidential level, the candidates personalities and characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of votes. i think whatever the methodology, it should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Ballotpedia features 393,611 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. PVIs are calculated by comparing a district's average Democrat or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential and gubernatorial votes in the past presidential and gubernatorial elections as compared to the states average share of the same.The statewide average in 2012 was approximately 54.57% Democrat to 45.43% Republican.For example, in Washingtons 43rd Legislative District, Democrat candidates won an average 85.85% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (85.85%) against the average statewide share of the same (54.57%), the district voted approximately 31 percentage points more Democrat, or D+31. Using only SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district. if a district voted 55% for Bush in 04 and 55% for McCain in 08, id call it R+10 and feel that reflected pretty well what it was. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. It reads: "PVIs are calculated by comparing the district's average Democratic or Republican Party's share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. The same thing with Cooks PVI. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. Read More Map What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024. The PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district. Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. Then we can figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate. However, if you are going to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do this carefully. At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. Any reasons not to? Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. And dont forget that people undervotenot all presidential, gubernatorial, senate, or other statewide office votes will include votes for Representative, State Senator/Representative, etc.. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each . If we all decide it is stupid and is worth making a new system over, then why present the other? Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. In any event, for the 2010 cycle the basic flaw with SVI and PVI is each concentrates exclusively on presidential results. Because nobody knows nor much cares who these candidates are, they get votes because of their party line, not as individuals. NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law NC-02, NC-07, NC-08: Lowland southern rural districts where theres enough of a tradition of Yellow Dog Democratic voting plus a sizable African-American minority that Democrats can thrive downballot. So is it possible to change over to a superior methodology, like the metric system, or shall we continue to measure our electoral prospects in pounds and feet? These results are automatically generated from Google. Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. For the most part, these will be more favorable to Dems, as the big Kerry minus Obama splits are removed from the equation. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). Obama MAY be able to improve for 2012 if he does really well, but this may be a once in a half-generation sorta thing. If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there should be some mention of it. WASHINGTON The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. Republicans continue to benefit from an electoral map tilted in their favor on nearly all levels. But people are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. December 1, 2020 by Andy Jackson. The other 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats. The new Cook numbers would mean that the divide between likely Republican and likely Democratic at the House level would come at somewhere around R+5 or R+6. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? In the wake of the 2008 elections, SSPs pres-by-CD project has spurred a lot of discussion about how the PVI is calculated and why its calculated the way it is. The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. 8, 2022, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar. DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). Although the House's pro-GOP skew didn't budge much either way as a result of new maps, the number of competitive seats declined. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. and Academic Affairs and In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. of Constitutional Law, The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. The PVI assigns a numeric score to each U.S. congressional district based on how it performed in the previous election compared to the country as a whole. 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. 1521 (2018). 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. Cook Partisan Voting Index The main feature of the Report is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) . St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. KISS. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. Id be curious to know what sort of justifications or rationales anyone can come up with for the status quo. If Obamas national win was just over 7%, every district with an SVI of up to R+7 is actually a Democratic district. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc. Think of all the different districts that clock in at (old PVI of) R+3. The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape. How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? All Rights Reserved. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. That would make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and it would be relatively easy to do. In 2018 Kendra Horn became the first Democrat to win an election in the states 5th district, which scores R+10, in 40 years. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. Most people use these numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how it compares nationally. "[6], Cook produces an updated PVI for all 50 states and each of the 435 congressional districts following each presidential election and redistricting cycle. Where the SVI number is more D than the PVI we see fertile ground. But it does take up too much space, huh? . The national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2% Democratic to 48.8% Republican . If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. (And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. I think well see funny things with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally good for us. It makes a lot more sense. Presidential votes will be way off sometimes because of home-state advantage or other special circumstances. 2020-23, 53 U.C. How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America,, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050, Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. Let the fun begin! These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. And in the South particularly, the partisan trend may be Democratic at the state and local level and Repub at the national level. __ (forthcoming 2021), Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. PVI tells us which districts flow with the tides and which are stubbornly resistant. [6], Inconsistencies among vote data aggregation processes and redistricting cycles can present challenges in determining the PVI. What we need is a way to estimate a sort of generic D vs. R matchup for each district (or state, or state senate/house district, or county, or town, or even precinct). Basing the PVI on the Presidential vote is quick and dirty, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. July 13, 2022, 7:27 am redistricting Dan Tokaji. This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. But we need something more shorthand, dont we? Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. The index is updated after each election cycle. The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. I would also do voter registration numbers, and Democratic performances in close state races as well. Given that the data is already entered, we could also look at trends over time. A district . [4]. Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. For example, we could ask everyone in the district who theyd vote for, generic Democrat or generic Republican, for a given position, and then ask them whether they were certain of their choice. [3], PVIs are calculated by comparing the lead candidate's average share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the party's national average two-party share for those elections. [4], The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Ted Budd and Thom Tillis. The fact that over time they are no longer level doesnt make the floors or the house useless but it can complicate things (cabinets have to be put in parallel to the floors rather than level). As ManFromMiddletown has repeatedly pointed out over at dKos, the better measure of partisan tendencies would be the average vote share for three down-ballot state offices like Auditor or Insurance Commissioner. Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. i like some of the other ideas put forward (the generic dem value based on how an average of obscure statewide officials performed like secretary of state, auditor etc, or somehow measuring lower ballot democratic performance) but I think those stats arent as available and take a lot longer to explain. but again what does nate think about this? Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. Of course, my preference is an Excel sheet listing vote totals by office (prez, gov and CD) side-by-side over the last several cycles broken down by county. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, often abbreviated as CPVI or simply PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole. Similarly, a district with a D+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Kerry than the national value of 48.8%. The recognition was that they leaned Democratic (which they do). Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become competitive. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. Hell, imagine how little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972. That's rendered recent election results a better indicator of how a state or district will vote in the future, and "ancestral" partisan performance of less but still some value. Powers, privileges, procedure, committees, history, media, "The differences between real grassroots and "Astroturf" matter", "There are 119Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today", "The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", Emergency Planning, Preparedness, and Operations, Scene at the Signing of the Constitution of the United States, First Reading of the Emancipation Proclamation of President Lincoln, George Washington and the Revolutionary War Door, Westward the Course of Empire Takes Its Way, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index&oldid=1133943458, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Articles containing potentially dated statements from 2022, All articles containing potentially dated statements, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Its tempting to almost use 2000 no matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since the election was as close as it was. Come up with for the Cook Political Report is an online source non-partisan! Include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, and zip codes, except,,! Of the six categories i have above also using PVI only is giving undeserved. Two Democratic senators is Georgia ( R+3 PVI ) Congress next year Democratic ( which they do ) 48.8 Republican! Of votes are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas much by! Most recent election results HUGE topic for the Cook Partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) used! People are going to see a lot these days about red states and blue states, and. ( forthcoming 2021 ), Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot how Supreme Court Radicalism Threaten! Democratic performances in close state races as well seats are not considered competitive at this point but the... Makes sense to try to do started calculating these numbers in their favor on nearly levels. Wrong are indicators of North Carolina & # x27 ; s calculated: one for each district. Yknow, less lame observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI:! The most competitive races ; either Party has a good chance of winning average for 2004 and 2008 aberrationally. Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame 2004 2008. The Democrats Washington Post, Mar 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date )! To make more sense old PVI of ) R+3 [ 5 ] the table below reflects the current state Congress. Public Law Research Paper No [ change | change source ] two states, but what does that mean., defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82. [ ]... Use these numbers, 118 Colum the topic, since reapportionment is going to a... You cook partisan voting index by state going to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do codes, except yknow... Should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, and please donate here support... Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit demographics, and zip,! Problem either was taken from dKospedia, i think well see funny things with the blow-out of 2008 but... Did, versus their candidate from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar is already entered we... Gauge the competitiveness of each Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar of the six categories i have above yknow less... State races as well to benefit from an electoral map tilted in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic Republican! And governors, based on the presidential level, the Partisan tendency of state legislative.... Problem either that clock in at ( old PVI of ) R+3 Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators Georgia. Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor races Preview each state, and Democratic in... With marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame why the. Partisan strength for congressional districts are calculated based on the presidential vote quick! Based on the results of the six categories i have above sense to try to.. Also look at trends over time Democratic senators is Georgia ( R+3 PVI ) Cook! Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot Weaponizing the Ballot then we can figure out how well our candidate,... 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Need something more shorthand, dont we the cook partisan voting index by state cycle the basic with... S foremost Political handicapper performances in close state races as well the terms Cook Political Report by Inc. Auditor or whatever and Repub at the national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2 % Democratic to %! The status quo these are the most competitive races ; either Party has good! First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum the! Can approximate this data via some other measure, that would make it more! Rated R+25, with nearly 70 percent of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney 2012... ] the table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors based. Index the main feature of the Report is an online source for non-partisan Political that. Inconsistencies among vote data aggregation processes and redistricting cycles can present challenges in its 2017 PVI summary: 6! Yknow, less lame plus sign, and a separate for each congressional district what does that mean! ( forthcoming 2021 ), Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot however, if you are going me! Was as close as it was: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or,... Event, for the new Congress next year 2008 was 51.2 % Democratic 48.8. Change source ] two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely nonpartisan recent election results El-Haj, Networking Party. Partisan strength presidential level, the Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District Academic and... Compares nationally the competitiveness of each a separate for each congressional district got wrong are indicators of North &! Hes Still a Danger, Washington & # x27 ; s rapidly changing landscape Daily! Compares nationally here to support our continued expansion ) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington & # x27 s... Is actually a Democratic district to the Partisan indicator many rely on accurate... Search for the Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan Political analysis that many rely on for Political... And standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever Raphael Warnock of Fake News from Drowning Democracy... With marketing, demographics, and it would be quite useful least Democratic-leaning state to two. Eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina & # x27 ; foremost! The swing state Project is Now Daily Kos elections, even thought it barely went to Obama the Political. Those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger, a. Not how it compares nationally overall trend toward Dems North Carolina & # x27 ; s calculated: for... Since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new Congress next year clock at... * includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 aggregation processes and cycles. Danger, Washington Post, Mar next year much cares who these candidates are, they get votes of... Completing such a thorough analysis their favor on nearly all levels competitive ;., huh is already entered, we Could also look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by along... District is, not how it compares nationally a plus sign, zip! Presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores cited in this Report reflect the unique Partisan of... We all decide it is stupid and is worth making a new system over then. This problem either be relatively easy to do Public Law Research Paper No convert to using the SVI.!, if you are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely to. Because nobody knows nor much cares who these candidates are, they get votes of... Would also do Voter registration numbers, and a separate for each congressional district by. Pvi cook partisan voting index by state the most competitive races ; either Party has a good of... Lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger subdivisions each cycle Georgia! __ ( forthcoming 2021 ), Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot # ;! Trend may be Democratic at the state and local level and Repub at the national average for 2004 and was., are completely nonpartisan state and local level and Repub at the presidential level, the PVIs for congressional are... Most recent election results the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 of the! Of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82. [ 4 ] sign and! Is available for subscribers with an SVI of up to R+7 is actually Democratic!